Buffalo Trace Daily | Price analysis
Actual vs Inflationary Pricing Using 12/31/20 as the Baseline
The question is simple. If each bottle’s posted price merely tracked general inflation, what would the price be on 12/31/25? Inflationary prices are computed using CPI scaling from the 12/31/20 baseline, then compared to the observed year end price series. Grades are determined by how far the 12/31/25 actual price falls under or over the inflationary benchmark.
Method and formulas
Inflationary prices are calculated by multiplying the 12/31/20 baseline price by the CPI ratio at each year end checkpoint. Deviations are evaluated on 12/31/25 as a percentage of the inflationary benchmark.
Inflation context: CPI implies approximately 24.4% cumulative inflation from 12/31/20 to 12/31/25. Year to year CPI changes: 12/31/20 to 12/31/21 7.0%, 12/31/21 to 12/31/22 6.5%, 12/31/22 to 12/31/23 3.4%, 12/31/23 to 12/31/24 2.9%, 12/31/24 to 12/31/25 2.7%.
W.L. Weller Special Reserve
Result: Observed pricing falls well below inflation, implying a real price decrease relative to 12/31/20.
- For a $30.00 baseline, CPI scaling implies $37.36 on 12/31/25.
- Observed 12/31/25 price is $30.00, which is $7.36 below inflation.
- The price grade summarizes that year end discount versus inflation.
Sazerac Rye
Result: Observed pricing falls well below inflation, implying a real price decrease relative to 12/31/20.
- For a $30.00 baseline, CPI scaling implies $37.36 on 12/31/25.
- Observed 12/31/25 price is $30.00, which is $7.36 below inflation.
- The price grade summarizes that year end discount versus inflation.
Buffalo Trace Bourbon
Result: Observed pricing falls well below inflation, implying a real price decrease relative to 12/31/20.
- For a $27.00 baseline, CPI scaling implies $33.62 on 12/31/25.
- Observed 12/31/25 price is $27.00, which is $6.62 below inflation.
- The price grade summarizes that year end discount versus inflation.
Blanton’s Single Barrel
Result: Observed pricing falls slightly below inflation at year end 2025.
- For a $63.00 baseline, CPI scaling implies $78.45 on 12/31/25.
- Observed 12/31/25 price is $74.99, which is $3.46 below inflation.
- The price grade summarizes that year end discount versus inflation.
Eagle Rare
Result: Observed pricing sits close to inflation, with a slight year end premium versus the benchmark.
- For a $34.00 baseline, CPI scaling implies $42.34 on 12/31/25.
- Observed 12/31/25 price is $43.00, which is $0.66 above inflation.
- That tight spread is why this grades as a near inflation tracker.
E.H. Taylor Jr. Small Batch
Result: Observed pricing exceeds inflation, implying a real price increase relative to 12/31/20.
- For a $43.00 baseline, CPI scaling implies $53.54 on 12/31/25.
- Observed 12/31/25 price is $59.99, which is $6.45 above inflation.
- That year end premium drives the lower grade.
Weller Antique 107
Result: Year end pricing sits well above inflation, implying a significant real price increase relative to 12/31/20.
- For a $40.00 baseline, CPI scaling implies $49.81 on 12/31/25.
- Observed 12/31/25 price is $59.99, which is $10.18 above inflation.
- That year end premium drives the lowest grade in this set.
Short summary
Biggest year end discounts versus inflation are W.L. Weller Special Reserve and Sazerac Rye at −19.7% each, with Buffalo Trace Bourbon close behind at −19.7%. Blanton’s finishes below inflation at −4.4% using $74.99 on 12/31/25. Eagle Rare tracks inflation tightly at +1.6%. Biggest year end premium is Weller Antique 107 at +20.4%, with E.H. Taylor Jr. Small Batch also above inflation at +12.0%.
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