Buffalo Trace Bourbon Prices vs. Inflation: What the Numbers Really Show
Inflation since 2020 has been anything but normal. So we compared Buffalo Trace Distillery bottle prices with both the inflation consumers actually experienced and the much slower long-term pace of inflation.
Bourbon prices are higher than they were several years ago. So are groceries, housing, cars and just about everything else.
That raises an important question: Have Buffalo Trace Distillery bourbon prices really become more expensive, or have they simply moved with inflation?
The answer depends partly on which version of inflation you use.
Consumer prices rose approximately 28.20% between December 2020 and July 2026, according to the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers.
But that period was far from normal.
Looking at the much longer period from July 2006 through July 2026, inflation averaged approximately 2.51% per year. Had that more typical rate continued from the end of 2020 through mid-2026, cumulative inflation would have been only about 14.83%.
In other words, Americans experienced nearly twice as much inflation after 2020 as the longer-term trend would have suggested.
So Buffalo Trace Daily compared five familiar bottles against both benchmarks.
First, Just How Unusual Was Inflation?
The same 2020-to-2026 period looks very different depending on whether we use actual inflation or the long-term historical pace.
Bourbon vs. Actual Inflation vs. Normal Inflation
Cumulative percentage increase since December 31, 2020.
And This Is Where It Gets Interesting
Against the inflation Americans actually experienced, Blanton’s and Eagle Rare do not look particularly unusual.
Blanton’s increased 31.73% compared with actual inflation of 28.20%. Eagle Rare increased only 26.44%, meaning its price actually rose slightly less than overall consumer prices.
But compare those bottles with the country’s longer-term inflation trend and the picture changes dramatically.
The approximately 14.83% long-term benchmark is less than half the increase in Blanton’s and well below the increase in Eagle Rare.
That means Blanton’s and Eagle Rare look relatively normal only because inflation itself was so unusually high after 2020.
Bourbon Prices: Then and Now
Buffalo Trace Distillery prices from December 31, 2020 compared with current prices.
E.H. Taylor Is the Clear Outlier
E.H. Taylor Jr. Small Batch has risen from $43.00 to $59.99, an increase of approximately 39.51%.
That beats both inflation benchmarks.
If the bottle had merely followed the actual 28.20% increase in consumer prices, it would cost approximately $55.12.
At the 20-year historical inflation pace, it would be only about $49.38.
Its actual $59.99 price is therefore roughly $4.87 higher than actual inflation would suggest and $10.61 higher than the long-term inflation trend.
What Should These Bottles Cost?
Actual current price compared with the theoretical price under actual post-2020 inflation and the longer-term 20-year inflation trend.
Blanton’s Looks Normal Until You Zoom Out
Blanton’s increased from $63.00 to $82.99, a jump of approximately 31.73%.
Compared with the 28.20% inflation consumers actually experienced since December 2020, that is surprisingly close.
A $63 bottle simply keeping pace with actual inflation would cost about $80.76 today, only $2.23 below the actual price.
But under the longer-term inflation trend, Blanton’s would cost only about $72.34.
Suddenly that $82.99 price looks a lot less ordinary.
Eagle Rare Tells the Story Even Better
Eagle Rare increased from $34.00 to $42.99, a cumulative increase of approximately 26.44%.
That’s actually less than the 28.20% increase in overall consumer prices since December 2020.
Based on actual inflation, Eagle Rare would be expected to cost approximately $43.59. Its current price is 60 cents lower.
But at the longer-term inflation pace, the expected price would be only about $39.04.
So Eagle Rare simultaneously looks like a bottle that hasn’t kept up with inflation and one whose price has far outpaced normal inflation.
Both statements are true.
And Then There Are Buffalo Trace and Weller
Buffalo Trace Bourbon was $27.00 at the end of 2020. It remains $27.00.
Weller Special Reserve was $30.00. It is still $30.00.
If Buffalo Trace Bourbon had followed actual inflation, it would cost roughly $34.61. Even at the much lower long-term inflation rate, it would be approximately $31.00.
Weller Special Reserve would be approximately $38.46 using actual inflation or $34.45 using the long-term trend.
Instead, both remain frozen at their 2020 prices.
The Full Comparison
Actual prices alongside both inflation-adjusted benchmarks.
| Bottle | 2020 Price | Current | Increase | Actual CPI Price | 20-Year CPI Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E.H. Taylor Jr. Small Batch | $43.00 | $59.99 | 39.51% | $55.12 | $49.38 |
| Blanton’s Single Barrel | $63.00 | $82.99 | 31.73% | $80.76 | $72.34 |
| Eagle Rare | $34.00 | $42.99 | 26.44% | $43.59 | $39.04 |
| Buffalo Trace Bourbon | $27.00 | $27.00 | 0.00% | $34.61 | $31.00 |
| Weller Special Reserve | $30.00 | $30.00 | 0.00% | $38.46 | $34.45 |
So, Have Buffalo Trace Prices Outpaced Inflation?
The fairest answer is: it depends on the bottle and which inflation story you’re telling.
E.H. Taylor Jr. Small Batch clearly outpaced both actual post-2020 inflation and the longer-term historical inflation rate.
Blanton’s increased only modestly more than the unusually high inflation Americans actually experienced after 2020, while Eagle Rare increased slightly less.
But compared with the country’s more typical 20-year inflation pace, all three allocated bottles increased substantially faster than inflation.
Buffalo Trace Bourbon and Weller Special Reserve are the complete opposite. Their prices haven’t moved at all.
Perhaps the most interesting conclusion isn’t simply that bourbon got more expensive.
It’s that the inflation surrounding those price increases was extraordinary too.
That made some fairly dramatic bourbon price increases look surprisingly ordinary.
Actual inflation is calculated using the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers, All Items, U.S. city average, from December 2020 through July 2026.
The long-term benchmark uses the annualized growth rate of CPI-U between July 2006 and July 2026 and compounds that rate over the December 2020 through July 2026 comparison period.
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics | BLS Historical CPI-U Table
CPI calculations: December 2020 CPI-U 260.474; July 2026 CPI-U 333.918; cumulative actual inflation 28.20%. July 2006 CPI-U 203.5; July 2026 CPI-U 333.918; annualized 20-year inflation rate approximately 2.51%. Compounding that long-term rate over the 67 months from December 2020 through July 2026 produces a comparative benchmark of approximately 14.83%. Values are rounded for display.
So sad that they have increased prices with giving no real reason.
A bigger crime is the dispute between BT and NC ABC Board, where their brand is becoming non existent, or when available, is at highly inflated prices.
Hummm but it is ok for you to make a profit analyzing them without any skin in the game. Supply and demand, sorry.
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